The BBC News Brasil poll aggregator shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) just one point ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in Brazil's 2026 presidential race, with 45% against 44% of voting intentions in a hypothetical runoff, based on data compiled through Monday, August 24. That tight national scoreline, however, masks a far more uneven picture when pollsters survey state by state: a round of Quaest polls released this week across several states shows Lula leading by as much as 30 percentage points in some northeastern strongholds, while Flávio holds a comfortable lead in southern states.
According to the BBC aggregator, Lula overtook Flávio in the runoff scenario in May, after reports linking the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro to banker Daniel Vorcaro surfaced. A Genial/Quaest poll from early August had shown a slightly wider lead for the president, 44% to 39% in the runoff, a gap the British broadcaster's aggregator narrowed as it incorporated more recent national surveys.
The state-level breakdown, released by Quaest based on interviews conducted between August 20 and 23 and reported by G1, shows the regional contrasts clearly. In Alagoas, Lula polls at 44% against Flávio's 29%, a 15-point lead. In Maranhão, the gap exceeds 30 points, with the leftist president at 58% versus 20% for the senator from Bolsonaro's PL party. In Paraná, the picture flips: Flávio leads with 41% to Lula's 23%, an 18-point advantage for the Bolsonaro-aligned candidate. In Minas Gerais and the Federal District, the race sits within the margin of error, with the two candidates in a technical tie.
In São Paulo, Brazil's largest electoral college, Quaest found an even tighter technical tie: Flávio numerically leads with 30% against Lula's 29%, a one-point gap within the poll's two-point margin of error, according to magazine Veja. The São Paulo survey, commissioned by broadcaster Globo, interviewed 1,800 voters between August 21 and 24.
Women's vote favors Lula
Part of Lula's national edge comes from female voters, according to BBC News Brasil reporting by journalist Mariana Schreiber. Averaging Genial/Quaest polls from February to August, women's preference for the president is driven mainly by voters in the Northeast (62% to 23%), Black women (55% to 24%) and those earning up to two minimum wages (52% to 29%). Among men, the pattern reverses more modestly: 44% back Flávio against 40% for Lula. Political scientist Jairo Nicolau, of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, says this gender gap, which has widened since 2018, could prove decisive because women make up the majority of Brazil's electorate: the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) counts 83.8 million registered female voters against 74.8 million men.
Brazil's 2026 campaign officially opened on August 16, with 13 candidacies registered at the TSE. The first presidential debate, hosted by the Grupo Bandeirantes broadcaster on Sunday, August 23, featured only Augusto Cury, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado; Lula and Flávio skipped it. Pablo Marçal (PRTB), barred from running until 2032, filed a candidacy and has been showing up in recent polls, but the TSE has blocked him from debates, campaigning, or accessing public campaign funds.