Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado holds a slim numerical lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a projected second-round runoff for the 2026 presidential election. A nationwide survey released Thursday by pollster PoderData/AYA places Caiado at 44% of voting intentions against 43% for the incumbent president.

The outcome represents a statistical tie within the survey's margin of error of two percentage points. Blank and spoiled ballots account for 10%, while 2% of respondents remain undecided. In the institute's previous poll earlier this month, Lula held the numerical edge with 45% against Caiado's 44%.

Additional runoff projections

The PoderData/AYA poll tested three additional head-to-head simulations for a presidential runoff. Against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula registers 45% against 44% for the conservative lawmaker, another statistical tie. Against Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema, Lula holds 44% to Zema's 43%. Lula leads outside the margin of error only against Renan Santos, polling at 44% compared to 37% for the right-wing contender.

In the first-round simulation, Lula leads with 38% followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 35%. The poll also found that 50% of voters disapprove of Lula's administration, while 42% approve. Rejection ratings stood at 49% for both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.

The PoderData/AYA poll surveyed 2,400 voters across 555 municipalities in all 27 Brazilian states between August 23 and 26. The survey has a 95% confidence level and is registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-04974/2026. Mandatory free electoral airtime on television and radio begins this Friday, August 28, opening daily campaign broadcasts across the country.