Two national polls released on Thursday (Sept 24) show a technical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party in a hypothetical runoff in Brazil's presidential election. In the PoderData/AYA survey, the senator has 46% of total voting intentions against 45% for Lula, who is running for reelection. The Real Time Big Data institute puts Flávio at 45% and Lula at 44%. A technical tie means the gap between the two falls inside the poll's margin of error.
The PoderData/AYA numbers
The survey interviewed 3,000 voters in 723 municipalities by phone between Sept 20 and 23. The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level, and the poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-01739/2026. According to Poder360, the news outlet whose group runs the survey, Lula gained 1 point in a week and closed in on his rival: the gap fell to 1 point, the same level as in late August. In match-ups with the writer Augusto Cury (Avante party), the pattern repeats: Cury has 45% against 42% for Lula, and Flávio has 41% against 39% for Cury.
In the first round, PoderData/AYA shows Lula at 41% and Flávio at 39%, another technical tie. Augusto Cury polls 6%, Renan Santos (Missão) has 3% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) 2%. In the runoff breakdown, Lula leads among women with 49% against 40% for the senator. Flávio runs stronger in the North (53%), the South (58%), the Center-West (46%) and among voters with a university degree (51%).
The Real Time Big Data picture
Real Time Big Data works with a 2-point margin of error. In the first round, Lula stands at 41% and Flávio at 37%, a result that Congresso em Foco, which published the numbers, classifies as a technical tie. In the runoff, the senator has 45% against 44% for the president. In the institute's previous round, in early September, the two were tied at 44%.
The poll also tested other runoff scenarios with Lula. The president ties Ronaldo Caiado at 44% to 44% and is technically tied with Augusto Cury at 44% to 43%. Lula wins the scenarios against Romeu Zema (45% to 39%) and Renan Santos (44% to 38%). Rejection of the two frontrunners is nearly identical: 50% of respondents say they would not vote for Lula, and 49% say the same about Flávio.
The electorate remains split by gender, income and region. Among women, Lula has 46% against 30% for the senator; among men, Flávio reaches 45% against 36% for the president. In the Northeast, Lula gets 59% against 26%. In the South, Flávio has 49% against 27%. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is the main challenger to Lula in the race. The first round is scheduled for Oct 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the top two advance to a runoff.