President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has 38% of voting intentions in the first round of Brazil's October election, against 35% for senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, according to a PoderData/Aya poll released on Thursday (27). With a margin of error of 2 percentage points, the two are in a technical tie. Poder360, the newsroom behind the poll, says it is the smallest gap between the candidates since May. Fifteen days ago, Lula led the senator by 6 points.
Behind them, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão) and Augusto Cury (Avante) each register 4%. Pablo Marçal (PRTB) has 3%. Romeu Zema (Novo) and Hertz Dias (PSTU) score 2% each, while Edmilson Costa (PCB) and Samara Martins (UP) reach 1% each. Three other candidates did not score. Another 5% said they plan to cast a blank or null vote, and 2% did not answer.
Runoff scenario also tied
In a potential runoff, the poll puts Lula at 45% and Flávio at 44%, again within the margin of error. Both slipped 1 point over the past 15 days. According to Poder360, the president is also technically tied with Zema and Caiado in runoff scenarios and holds a clear lead of 7 points only against Renan Santos.
Lula leads among women, with 48% to the senator's 39%. The president is also ahead in the Northeast (53%), among voters earning up to two minimum wages (47%) and among those with a college education (46%). Flávio performs better in the Center-West (50%), in the South (53%) and among voters with a high school education (46%).
This is the first PoderData/Aya round conducted after the August 15 deadline for candidates to register with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the body that oversees Brazilian elections. The institute interviewed 2,400 voters in 555 municipalities across all 27 states between August 23 and 26, by calls to mobile and landline phones. The confidence level is 95%. The poll is registered with the TSE under number BR-04974/2026.
A separate survey released on Thursday points to a similar picture. According to VEJA, pollster Real Time Big Data interviewed 2,000 voters in Minas Gerais between August 22 and 26 and found Lula at 39% and Flávio at 34% in the first round in the state, an electoral stronghold where every elected president since the return to democracy has won.
The candidacies filed with the TSE still need approval from electoral authorities and can be challenged. The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, a runoff will be held on October 25.