President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party has 38% of voting intentions in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, against 36% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, according to the PoderData/Aya poll released on Thursday (10). Interviewers reached 3,000 voters by phone between September 6 and 9. With a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points, the two are in a technical tie.
In a runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 47% against 45% for Lula, also a statistical tie. According to CNN Brasil, the senator rose 2 points from the previous round and the president rose 1. The pollster also tested the writer Augusto Cury of Avante in alternative runoffs: he beats Lula by 44% to 43% and loses to Flávio by 36% to 43%.
A tighter race
Cury ranks third in the first round with 10%, holding the level he reached last week, when he jumped from 4% to 10%, according to Poder360. Renan Santos (Missão party) has 3%, while Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Pablo Marçal (PRTB) have 2% each. Hertz Dias, Romeu Zema, Rui Costa Pimenta and Edmilson Costa sit at 1% each, and Clariana Barão, Samara Martins and Wilson Grassi did not score. Blank and spoiled votes add up to 3%, and 1% of respondents were undecided.
Lula's lead has narrowed over the series. The 2-point gap is the smallest since May, Poder360 reports. A week earlier the president led by 3 points. The same round puts rejection of Lula at 50%, against 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
How the poll was conducted
PoderData is the polling institute of the Poder360 media group, which funded the survey with its own resources. Aya Bancah, a digital newsstand, is the distribution partner. The poll heard 3,000 voters in 623 municipalities across all 27 Brazilian states. The confidence level is 95%, and the survey is registered with the TSE, the country's superior electoral court, under number BR-04914/2026. The series will run weekly until election day.
In its analysis, Poder360 says Lula "reaches the final stretch without the lead he held for most of this year", in a race overshadowed by the crisis at the Supreme Federal Tribunal. The first round is scheduled for October 4, and a possible runoff for October 25. The next PoderData/Aya round is expected next week.