Fifty percent of Brazilians disapprove of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government, while 43% approve, according to a Quaest poll released on Monday (September 14). Another 7% did not know or did not answer. The survey lands three weeks before the first round of Brazil's presidential election, set for October 4, with Lula running for reelection.

The figures match the previous Quaest round, from September 7, which also showed 50% disapproval and 43% approval. In a separate question on how voters rate the government, 38% call it bad, 32% good and 27% regular, with 3% giving no answer. In the September 7 round, the rating had been 34% good and 25% regular, according to CNN Brasil. The margin of error is two percentage points.

Globo, Brazil's largest media group, commissioned the poll in partnership with its newspaper O Globo. Quaest, one of the country's main polling firms, interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and older across the country between September 10 and 13. The confidence level is 95%, and the survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the body that runs elections in Brazil, under number BR-03607/2026.

The pollster's reading

For Quaest, the disapproval number helps explain the state of the race. In an analysis published by g1, Globo's news portal, Felipe Nunes, a professor and pollster at Quaest, wrote:

"The high and constant disapproval of the Lula government (50%) also helps explain this moment. It is unprecedented for an incumbent seeking reelection not to improve approval during the campaign."

Nunes also noted that approval converts almost fully into votes: in a runoff simulation, Lula gets 40%, the equivalent of 93% of the 43% who approve of the government. In the same poll, Lula has 36% of first-round vote intentions against 31% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, the closest gap between the two in the institute's historical series. In a runoff, the two are in a statistical tie, with 42% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 40% for Lula.

A Nexus/BTG survey released the same day shows a similar picture: 49% disapprove of the government and 47% approve, according to CNN Brasil. The first round is set for October 4. Until October 3, the eve of the vote, Globo's outlets will publish 130 polls commissioned from Quaest and Datafolha covering the races for the presidency, the Senate and the governorships of every state and the Federal District.