A comprehensive round of state polls by the Quaest institute shows a deeply divided electorate three days before Brazil's presidential election. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads in 10 states, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead in 8 states. Another 9 states remain in a statistical tie within the margin of error, including major battlegrounds such as São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul.
Political scientist Felipe Nunes, director of Quaest, detailed the findings in an analysis published by G1. According to Nunes, the electoral map closely mirrors the 2022 presidential race. The statistical correlation between Lula's current support and his 2022 first-round vote share is 0.98. For Flávio Bolsonaro, the correlation with the votes obtained by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, stands at 0.95. "The name changed, but the electorate remained," Nunes stated.
Lula holds solid leads across all nine northeastern states and in Amapá. His largest gains compared to 2022 appeared in Maranhão (+7 percentage points) and Bahia (+6). Flávio Bolsonaro leads in Rio de Janeiro, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Acre, Rondônia, and Roraima. While the senator made gains in the North and Center-West, he lost ground in Goiás (-6) and the Federal District of Brasília (-8). Independent voters represent between 24% and 36% of the electorate across states, peaking in Rio de Janeiro (36%) and Amazonas (35%).
Voter expectations also favor the incumbent president. Even in states where the race is tied or where Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead, a majority of voters expect Lula to win. In São Paulo, 50% expect Lula to win compared to 35% for Flávio, while in Rio de Janeiro the gap is 49% to 37%. Flávio leads victory expectations in only 7 states. However, between 11% and 23% of decided voters say they could still switch their choice, with volatility highest in Paraná (23%), Amapá (21%), São Paulo (20%), and Santa Catarina (20%).
Voters head to the ballot boxes on Sunday for the first round of the presidential election. Polling institutes will release their final tracking polls on the eve of the vote before polling stations open nationwide.