A new poll by the Quaest institute, released Tuesday, shows Senator Cleitinho Azevedo of the Republicanos party ahead in every simulated runoff scenario for governor of Minas Gerais, Brazil's second most populous state. The survey, commissioned by broadcaster TV Globo, interviewed 1,506 voters aged 16 and older between August 21 and 24, with a margin of error of three percentage points and a 95% confidence level. It was registered with Brazil's electoral court under number MG-04060/2026.

In the first-round scenario where candidates are named to respondents, Cleitinho leads comfortably with 29% of voting intentions. He is followed by Patrus Ananias of the Workers' Party (PT) with 11%, Alexandre Kalil of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) with 10%, and incumbent governor Mateus Simões of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) with 7%, a statistical tie with the two runners-up given the margin of error. Gabriel of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) polls at 5%. Undecided voters make up 19%, while blank, null or 'won't vote' responses total 12%.

Runoff simulations

Quaest tested six hypothetical second-round matchups. In the three that include Cleitinho, he wins comfortably: 51% to 26% against Patrus Ananias, 49% to 17% against Mateus Simões, and 48% to 27% against Alexandre Kalil. In scenarios without Cleitinho, races tighten considerably. Kalil would beat Patrus 42% to 18%, edge past Simões by a narrow 32% to 30%, and Patrus would top Simões 35% to 31%, several of these margins falling within or close to the poll's margin of error.

The poll also measured spontaneous voting intention, in which candidate names are not read aloud to respondents. In that format, 80% of Minas Gerais voters said they remain undecided about their choice for governor, and Cleitinho registered only 11% in unprompted mentions despite his commanding lead when names are presented. Political scientist Felipe Nunes, Quaest's director, said such high levels of indecision and low name recognition suggest the race could still see 'major upsets' before the first round of voting on October 4.

Quaest also asked voters about the direction they want the next state government to take: 43% favor changing only what isn't working, 37% want total change, and 16% prefer continuity with the current administration. On political alliances, 34% said they would prefer a governor aligned with President Lula, 30% one aligned with Flavio Bolsonaro, and 31% want a candidate independent of both.