A Quaest poll released on Monday, Sept. 14, has put Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL ahead of President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) in a simulated runoff in Brazil's 2026 presidential election for the first time in the institute's series: 42% to 40%. The two-point gap sits inside the poll's margin of error.
The result drew an immediate reaction from the president's campaign. In Tuesday's edition of Folha de S.Paulo, columnist Elio Gaspari wrote under the headline "Flávio Bolsonaro grew and the PT tries to wake up".
"Monday's Quaest poll landed like a bomb on Lula's campaign. For the first time, Flávio Bolsonaro overtook him in a simulated runoff (42% to 40%). On its own, that number says little. It is within the margin of error, and elections are won at the ballot box."
According to Gaspari, the senator's rise tracks the government's wear. "Bolsonaro grew by absorbing the support of voters who had long viewed Lula 3.0 negatively" (his shorthand for Lula's third government), the columnist wrote, adding that it was "inevitable" that negative views would migrate to an opponent. In the same poll's first-round scenario, Lula still leads with 36% of voting intentions against 31% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Cury has 7%, Renan Calheiros 4%, Ronaldo Caiado 4% and Romeu Zema 1%, according to G1.
Campaign and Planalto react
Other pollsters show a different picture. The CNT/MDA survey released on Tuesday gave Lula 47.3% to 40% in a runoff. According to JOTA Info, the BTG/Nexus poll "brings relief" to the president's team, while Quaest "sets off an alarm" in the Planalto, the seat of government, which has begun to reassess Lula's favorite status. "The perception that favorite status has changed sides may be the most dangerous data point for the PT," the website wrote. O Globo reported that Lula's campaign offered its own explanation for the numerical turnaround.
The race is also split by region, according to Datafolha and Quaest state-level surveys compiled by Folha. Lula leads in ten states, including all nine in the Northeast plus Pará. Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead in nine states plus the Federal District, strongest in the South and most of the Center-West, with technical ties in six states.
The first round is set for Oct. 4, less than three weeks away. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, a runoff will decide the election.