A Quaest poll released on Wednesday (2) shows the writer Augusto Cury, of the small Avante party, with 10% of voter intentions in the first round of Brazil's presidential election. In a likely runoff, President Lula gets 42% against 41% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The one-point gap sits inside the two-percentage-point margin of error, which makes the race a technical tie. The survey was commissioned by the newspaper O Globo and broadcaster Globo.
In the first round, Lula leads with 37%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 30%, as reported by Folha de S.Paulo and O Globo; the headline at g1, Globo's news site, recorded 29% for the senator. Renan Santos, of the Missão party, has 3%, and former governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema have 1% each. According to Folha, this is the institute's first national poll since the official campaign began, and the picture is one of near stability from the previous round on August 14, when Lula had 38% and Flávio Bolsonaro 31%.
Cury's rise
Cury gained eight percentage points from the previous Quaest round, when he stood at 2%. Folha notes that a direct comparison is limited, because the PRTB candidate in the scenario changed: Leonardo Avalanche left and Pablo Marçal entered. The writer's surge follows a BTG/Nexus poll released on Monday (31) that put him at 11%, behind only Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Between August 16 and 29, Cury gained about 2.5 million Instagram followers, according to a report by the Instituto Democracia em Xeque cited by Folha. Rival campaigns raised suspicions that influencers were paid to promote him; Cury's marketer, Sergio Lima, denied the practice in an interview with the newspaper.
Rejection and government ratings
On rejection, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 55% of voters who say they know him and would not vote for him; Lula follows at 53%. Cury is still unknown to 54% of respondents, while 21% know him and would vote for him and 25% know him and would not. On Lula's government, 48% disapprove and 45% approve, according to g1.
Quaest interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and over across the country between August 30 and September 1. The margin of error is two percentage points either way, with a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-07065/2026.
The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the runoff between the top two takes place on October 25.