A series of state-level polls released this week by Quaest, one of Brazil's leading polling firms, shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, technically tied in the country's three largest electorates: São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. The surveys, compiled by G1, cover 23 states and the Federal District and measure voter intentions for the first round on October 4.

In São Paulo, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro each have 30%, according to G1 and O Globo. In Minas Gerais, the senator has 31% and the president 30%. In Rio de Janeiro, Flávio registers 31% and Lula 29%. In the Federal District, Lula leads 28% to 26%. The margin of error is two percentage points in São Paulo and three points elsewhere, which keeps all of those races statistically tied.

Where each candidate leads

Lula holds his widest leads in the North and Northeast. He is 38 points ahead in Maranhão (58% to 20%), 35 in Pernambuco (54% to 19%), 34 in Sergipe and 33 in Bahia (50% to 17%), according to G1. CNN Brasil confirmed the Maranhão figures and reported that the institute interviewed 900 voters in the state between August 20 and 23, with a three-point margin of error. Lula also leads in Amapá (36% to 33%) and Amazonas (38% to 33%), both within the margin.

Flávio Bolsonaro leads in the South and in parts of the North and Center-West. According to G1, he is 35 points ahead in Roraima, 25 in Santa Catarina (45% to 20%), 20 in Rondônia and 17 in Acre (42% to 25%). In Paraná he has 41% to Lula's 23%, and in Mato Grosso 43% to 26%. Goiás is the only state where Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) leads numerically, with 32%, technically tied with Flávio Bolsonaro at 27%. Lula has 20% there.

Undecided voters draw the campaigns' attention

Rio Grande do Sul has the highest share of undecided voters in the series, 18%, followed by Minas Gerais and Paraná at 17% each and Rio de Janeiro at 16%, according to G1. In Rio state, another 16% say they plan to cast a blank or null ballot or not vote at all.

All polls in the series are registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the body that oversees Brazilian elections. In Maranhão, the survey was commissioned by Rede Mirante, a Globo affiliate, CNN Brasil reported. The reports published by Quaest label the surveys as "Round 1", signaling further state measurements before the October 4 first round.