Senator Renan Filho (MDB) has 42% of voting intentions in the race for governor of the northeastern state of Alagoas, against 40% for João Henrique Caldas, known as JHC (PSDB), according to a Quaest poll released on Monday (24). With a margin of error of three percentage points in either direction, the result is a statistical tie. It is the institute's first survey in the state, commissioned by TV Asa Branca, the Globo network affiliate in Alagoas.

According to G1, Lenilda Luna (UP) scored 1% and Márcio Jambo (DC) did not register in the prompted survey, in which respondents are shown the list of candidates. Blank and null votes total 7%, and 10% of voters say they are undecided.

In the spontaneous survey, in which names are not read out, Renan Filho, a senator and former governor of Alagoas, has 17% and JHC 16%, with 65% undecided. In a runoff simulation, the two tie at 42% each. For 65% of those interviewed, the vote is already final; 34% say they could change candidates before the October 4 election.

Rejection rates and Governor Paulo Dantas's standing

Quaest also measured name recognition and rejection. Renan Filho is the best known: 55% say they would vote for him and 31% say they would not. JHC has 52% of "know him and would vote for him", a 24% rejection rate, and is still unknown to 24% of voters.

The government of incumbent Paulo Dantas (MDB) has a 56% approval rating against 28% disapproval, and 55% of respondents say he deserves to elect his successor. Health was named the state's main problem by 41% of voters, followed by violence (16%) and unemployment (8%).

On the national divide, 42% prefer a governor allied with President Lula, 22% want an ally of Flávio Bolsonaro and 30% prefer a governor independent of both. Quaest interviewed 804 people at home between August 20 and 23, with a 95% confidence level. The poll was registered with the TSE, Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, under protocols AL-05503/2026 and BR-09091/2026.