Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL party has moved numerically ahead of President Lula of the PT in Minas Gerais for the first time in a simulated presidential runoff. The Quaest poll released on Tuesday (Sept. 8) puts the senator at 40% and the president at 37% in the state. The three-point gap falls within the margin of error, so the race there remains a technical tie.

Globo, the broadcaster that commissioned the survey, polled voters between Sept. 4 and 7, according to news site g1. The margin of error in Minas Gerais is three percentage points either way, at a 95% confidence level, and the poll is registered with the TSE, Brazil's electoral court, under number BR-09417/2026. Minas is the country's second-largest electorate, with 16.3 million eligible voters. In the runoff scenario, 15% say they would cast a blank or spoiled ballot or not vote at all, and 8% are undecided.

The pendulum state

Quaest director Felipe Nunes, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), calls Minas "Brazil's pendulum state". He notes that no president has won the national election without also winning there.

"For the first time in Minas Gerais, Brazil's pendulum state, we see Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula: 40 to 37 in a simulated runoff."

Quaest's own historical series shows the slide in Lula's numbers. The president went from 42% to 38%, 39% and 38% in earlier rounds, and now stands at 37%. "This is the worst reading we have measured for Lula in this key state," Nunes said. In August 2025, Lula led Flávio by nine points in Minas.

Nunes cautions that a single round cannot show whether the result is an oscillation or a lasting shift among voters. "If you look at Lula's curve, you see a trend that is significant," he said.

The other states

In the same round of runoff simulations, Flávio leads Lula beyond the margin of error in Sao Paulo, 41% to 33%, and in the Federal District, 45% to 38%. In Rio de Janeiro, the senator has 43% against 37%, with the gap at the outer edge of the margin of error. Lula leads in Pernambuco, 57% to 26%.

The first round of Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 4. If no candidate wins an absolute majority, the top two face a runoff on Oct. 25.