President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the presidential race in Minas Gerais, Brazil's second-largest state electorate, with 31% of voting intentions in the first round. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro follows with 27%, according to a Quaest poll released on Tuesday (September 8).

Globo, Brazil's largest media group, commissioned the survey, which was conducted between September 4 and 7. Quaest interviewed 1,506 voters aged 16 and older, CartaCapital reported. The margin of error is three percentage points, with a 95% confidence level, and the poll is registered with electoral authorities under number MG-04716/2026. The full batch of Quaest state polls released on Tuesday is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under BR-04442/2026, according to g1.

Behind the two frontrunners come writer Augusto Cury (Avante) with 8%, Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema (Novo) with 6%, Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 3%, and Renan Santos (Missão) with 2%. The other candidates scored zero. Undecided voters total 15%, and blank or spoiled ballots plus those who say they will not vote add up to 8%.

Compared with August, the state's leadership flipped. Flavio Bolsonaro had 31% last month, one point ahead of Lula's 30%. Now Lula stands at 31% and the senator at 27%. The biggest jump belonged to Cury, who rose from 1% to 8%, CartaCapital reported.

Runoff simulation

In a possible runoff, the order reverses. Flavio Bolsonaro has 40% against Lula's 37%, a scenario that g1 describes as a statistical tie within the three-point margin of error. In August, Lula led the simulation 38% to 35%. For political scientist Felipe Nunes, in an analysis published by g1, this is the first time Flavio polls numerically ahead of Lula in the "thermometer state", the nickname Minas Gerais carries in presidential races.

The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins more than half of valid votes, the top two advance to a runoff on October 25.