A Quaest poll released on Tuesday (25) shows a statistical tie at the top of the race for governor of Rondônia, a state in Brazil's western Amazon. Senator Marcos Rogério (PL), the leading Bolsonaro-aligned name in the state, has 24% of voting intentions in the first round, against 21% for Adailton Fúria (PSD), a former mayor of Cacoal, a city known as the Amazon's "coffee capital". With a margin of error of three percentage points, the two are technically tied.

Hildon Chaves (União Brasil), a former mayor of the state capital Porto Velho, and Expedito Netto (PT), a former federal deputy who left the PSDB to join President Lula's Workers' Party, each have 10%. Samuel Costa and Pedro Abib (MDB) trail with 2% and 1%. Blank and spoiled ballots plus voters who say they will not vote add up to 10%, while undecided voters reach 22%.

It is the first poll the institute has conducted in the state in this electoral cycle. Quaest interviewed 804 voters aged 16 or older between August 21 and 24. The survey, commissioned by the Rede Amazônica TV network, is registered with the TSE, Brazil's electoral court, under the numbers RO-05711/2026 and BR-00490/2026, with a 95% confidence level.

In the spontaneous poll, in which no candidate names are read out, 65% of respondents could not say who they would vote for. Among those who named a candidate, Adailton Fúria leads with 12%, closely followed by Marcos Rogério at 11%. Hildon Chaves has 4% and Expedito Netto, 3%.

In runoff simulations, Marcos Rogério wins in all three scenarios tested: he would beat Fúria by 40% to 29%, Expedito Netto by 49% to 23% and Hildon Chaves by 47% to 20%. Without the senator, Fúria would defeat Chaves by 37% to 23% and Netto by 41% to 18%. In the only scenario without the two front-runners, Chaves would beat Netto by 33% to 27%.