Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, leads voting intentions in Santa Catarina with 45%, against 20% for President Lula (PT), according to a Quaest poll released on Monday (24). The survey, commissioned by local broadcaster NSC, measured the presidential race in the southern state ahead of the first round on October 4.

Behind the two front-runners come Renan Santos (Missão), with 4%, and, tied at 3% each, former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo), writer Augusto Cury (Avante) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). Samara Martins (UP) has 1%, and the remaining candidates score 0%, G1 reported. Undecided voters total 13%, while 8% say they will cast a blank or null ballot or will not vote.

Quaest also tested a scenario including Pablo Marçal (PRTB), who filed his candidacy despite being ineligible; the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil's top electoral authority, has yet to rule on whether he can run. In that version, Flávio Bolsonaro holds at 45% and Lula at 20%. Marçal appears with 2%, tied with Cury, while Renan Santos keeps 4% and Zema and Caiado, 3% each. Blank, null and non-voters drop to 7%.

Settled votes

For 70% of those interviewed, the choice of candidate is final. Another 30% say they may still change their vote before the election. According to NSC, 79% of Flávio Bolsonaro's voters consider their decision settled; among Lula's voters, the share reaches 80%.

Lula's ratings in the state

The poll also gauged the federal government's image in Santa Catarina: 69% of respondents disapprove of the Lula administration and 28% approve. Sixty percent rate the government as negative, 19% as average and 20% as positive.

Quaest interviewed 804 people aged 16 and over between August 20 and 23. The margin of error is three percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the TSE under numbers SC-00517/2026 and BR-07160/2026.