A new Quaest poll released on Tuesday shows a statistical tie between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers' Party (PT), in the presidential race among voters in Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest electoral college. In the first round scenario with candidate names shown to respondents, Bolsonaro numerically leads with 30% of voting intentions, against 29% for Lula, according to Brazilian magazine VEJA.
The one point gap falls within the poll's margin of error of two percentage points in either direction, which makes it a statistical tie between the two front runners. The survey was commissioned by Grupo Globo and interviewed 1,800 voters in the state of Sao Paulo between August 21 and 24.
Other candidates trail far behind
Behind the two leaders, the poll shows a wide gap to the other names tested. Renan Santos, of the Missão party, comes in third with 5% of voting intentions. Ronaldo Caiado, of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), registers 4%, while Romeu Zema, of the Novo party, has 3%. Given the two point margin of error, all three are statistically tied with each other.
Author Augusto Cury, of the Avante party, polls at 2%. Samara Martins, Rui Costa Pimenta and Wilson Grassi each register 1%, while Clariana Barão and Hertz Dias show 0%. In a separate scenario that includes Pablo Marçal, who has been ruled ineligible to run by Brazil's electoral court, he polls at 4%.
The survey also found 13% of undecided voters and 12% who say they will cast blank or null ballots or do not plan to vote at all. Those numbers underline how competitive the race remains in a state that holds the largest number of voters in Brazil and has historically been decisive for the outcome of presidential elections.
The same round of Quaest polling in Sao Paulo also measured other races in the state on Tuesday, including the governor's race, where Tarcísio de Freitas leads Fernando Haddad, and the Senate race, marked by a three way statistical tie among Guilherme Derrite, Marina Silva and Simone Tebet.