Governor Tarcísio de Freitas of the Republicans party has 42% of voter support in the first round of the race for the São Paulo state government. Former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad of the Workers' Party (PT) has 27%, according to a Quaest poll released on Tuesday (Sept. 8) and commissioned by TV Globo. In the previous round, in late August, the governor had 40% and the PT candidate 27%.
Quaest surveyed 1,800 people aged 16 and older across São Paulo state, Brazil's most populous state and largest electoral college, between Sept. 4 and 7. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under code SP-00959/2026.
14% of voters still undecided
Among the other candidates, Policial Edjane (Agir) fell from 2% to 1%. Vera Lúcia (PSTU), Izadora Dias (PCO) and Carlos Machado (PCB) each have 1%, and Vivian Mendes (UP) did not score. Blank and spoiled ballots add up to 13%, and undecided voters reach 14%. For 69% of respondents the choice is already final; 31% say they could still change their vote before the election on Oct. 4.
In a simulated runoff, Tarcísio has 48% against Haddad's 31%, with 11% blank or spoiled ballots and 10% undecided. Both rose from the previous round, when the governor had 47% and the PT candidate 30%.
Haddad has the highest rejection rate in the race: 57% of respondents know him and would not vote for him, against 35% who know him and would. Tarcísio's rejection stands at 37%, unchanged, and 50% know him and would vote for him. In the spontaneous poll, where candidate names are not read to voters, the governor scores 22% and the PT candidate 10%, with 64% undecided.
Haddad entered the São Paulo race to give the PT a strong platform in the country's largest electorate, according to Folha de S.Paulo. He began his campaign alongside President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in São Bernardo do Campo, in the ABC industrial region, and has not yet held his own launch event, G1 reports. Tarcísio, who is running for reelection and launched his bid in Osasco, backs Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the presidential race, while his party chose to stay neutral. The first round is on Oct. 4.