A Quaest poll released on Monday (Sept 21) shows a statistical tie between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and the candidate of the right-wing PL party, and President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) in a simulated runoff of Brazil's presidential election. The senator has 42% of vote intentions, against 41% for the incumbent. The one-point gap sits inside the poll's margin of error of two percentage points. The survey was commissioned by Globo, Brazil's largest media group, and interviewed 2,004 voters between Sept 17 and 20, with a 95% confidence level. Its registration number with the electoral court is BR-06004/2026.

This is the pollster's first survey since the government announced an increase in Bolsa Família, Brazil's main cash-transfer program. The minimum payment rises from 600 to 691 reais and the average benefit from 675 to 777 reais. The raise takes effect between the first round and a possible runoff. Flávio criticized the move and accused Lula of trying to "buy the vote of the poorest". He called the increase "an act of desperation".

Voter segments

Among Bolsa Família recipients, Lula leads 56% to 30% in the runoff scenario, according to breakdowns published by g1, Globo's news portal. His lead in the Northeast fell from 32 to 26 points, now standing at 57% to 31%. In the Southeast, Flávio's advantage narrowed from 16 to 7 points. Among women, Lula rose from 41% to 44%, while Flávio slipped from 38% to 37%. Among evangelical voters, the senator leads 58% to 28%. He is ahead 48% to 36% in the Center-West and North, and 52% to 30% in the South.

In the first-round simulation, Lula has 37% and Flávio 33%. It is the first time in the campaign that the two are statistically tied in that scenario. A week earlier, the president had 36% and the senator 31%. Augusto Cury has 6%, Ronaldo Caiado 4% and Renan Santos 3%. Rejection of both frontrunners remains above 50%: 56% of voters say they would not vote for Flávio, and 55% say the same about Lula. According to O Globo, this was also the first Quaest round after the Supreme Court session that opened discussion on a possible investigation of Justice Alexandre de Moraes in the Master Bank case.

Pernambuco: a 27.8-point lead for Lula

In Pernambuco, the picture is the opposite of the national one, and the numbers come from a different pollster. A separate AtlasIntel survey released on Tuesday (Sept 22) gives 60.5% of vote intentions to Lula and 32.7% to Flávio in a simulated runoff in the state, according to Poder360. Blank, null and undecided answers add up to 6.9%. Counting only valid votes, the president reaches 64.9%. In the state's first-round scenario, Lula has 58.3% and Flávio 29.9%. No other candidate tops Cury's 3.2%. AtlasIntel interviewed 1,836 voters between Sept 15 and 20, with a two-point margin of error. The registrations are PE-02023/2026 and BR-09256/2026.

The first round is scheduled for Oct 4, less than two weeks away. Felipe Nunes, Quaest's director, summed up the moment in an analysis published by O Globo's Pulso blog: "The moment of decision has arrived. The definition of the winner, not yet". Among respondents who have already picked a candidate, 79% call their choice final and 21% say they may still change.