Quaest polls released on Tuesday (Sept. 8) show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL party ahead of President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) beyond the margin of error in São Paulo and the Federal District in a hypothetical presidential runoff. The five surveys were commissioned by Globo and interviewed voters between Sept. 4 and 7. Lula leads in Pernambuco. In Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the two are statistically tied, with Bolsonaro numerically ahead.
Numbers by state
In São Paulo, Brazil's most populous state, Flávio Bolsonaro has 41% of voting intentions against 33% for Lula. In the Federal District, home to the capital Brasilia, the score is 45% to 38%. In Minas Gerais, the senator polls 40% to the president's 37%, a gap within the three-point margin. In Rio de Janeiro, the score is 43% to 37%, with the difference at the edge of the margin of error, according to g1, Globo's news portal. Pernambuco is the only one of the five territories surveyed where Lula holds a clear lead: 57% to 26%.
São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro are Brazil's three largest electoral colleges, with 34.1 million, 16.3 million and 12.8 million voters respectively. In all, 158.7 million Brazilians are eligible to vote this year. The margin of error is two percentage points in São Paulo and three points in the other states, with a 95% confidence level. According to CartaCapital, the polls interviewed 1,800 people in São Paulo, 1,506 in Minas Gerais, 1,302 in Rio de Janeiro and 1,104 in the Federal District. All surveys are registered with the TSE, Brazil's electoral court.
The final stretch
On the same day, the national BTG/Nexus poll showed Flávio numerically ahead of Lula for the first time in one of its runoff simulations, at 46% to 45%, a result within the margin of error. For Marcelo Tokarski, CEO of Nexus, the gap is still too small to signal a consolidated trend, but it deserves attention in a race that remains very tight, according to VEJA. In the poll's rating of the federal government, approval moved from 46% to 45%, while disapproval went from 51% to 50%.
The first round is scheduled for Oct. 4. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the runoff takes place on Oct. 25.