A Quaest poll released on Tuesday (25) shows a tight contest for Rondonia's two Senate seats in October's elections. According to G1, the survey was commissioned by the regional broadcaster Rede Amazonica and shows candidate Dr. Fernando Maximo of the Liberal Party (PL) numerically ahead with 17% of voting intentions in the combined count, closely followed by three other names: Silvia Cristina (PP) and Bruno Bolsonaro Sheid (PL), both at 11%, and Mariana Carvalho (Republicanos), at 10%.

Brazil elects two senators per state in 2026, and each voter must choose two different candidates, without being able to pick the same name twice. Because of that, Quaest breaks its results down three ways: a combined total for both seats, and separate figures for the first and second seat choices. In the first-seat tally, Maximo leads with 20%, Silvia Cristina has 16%, Sheid has 12% and Mariana Carvalho has 10%. In the second-seat tally, Maximo again leads with 15%, followed by Sheid at 10% and Mariana Carvalho at 9%, while Silvia Cristina drops to 6%.

Rounding out the combined field are Acir Gurgacz (PDT) with 5%, Luciana Oliveira of the Workers' Party (PT) with 4%, and Engenheiro Thulio (Missao), Luis Fernando (PSD) and Neidinha (PSB), each with 1%. Aires Mota (PV) registered no support. Blank, null or non-votes account for 13%, and 26% of respondents remain undecided.

An unprompted question, in which candidates' names are not shown to respondents, illustrates how little known the race still is: 83% of those surveyed could not name a single Senate candidate on their own. A separate rejection measure found that Acir Gurgacz and Mariana Carvalho have the highest shares of voters who say they know the candidate but would not vote for them, at 23% and 22% respectively. Maximo is the best known of the group: 37% say they know him and would vote for him, against 47% who do not know him at all.

Methodology

According to G1, Quaest interviewed 804 people aged 16 and older between August 21 and 24, 2026. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The poll was registered with Brazil's top electoral court, the TSE, under numbers RO-05711/2026 and BR-00490/2026. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said their choice of candidate is final, while 42% said they could still change their vote before election day on October 4.