President Lula has 39% of first-round voting intentions against 34% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Quaest poll released on Monday (28). Brazilians vote for president next Sunday (October 4). The survey was commissioned by the newspaper O Globo and broadcaster Globo.

Lula rose two points from the previous round, released on September 21, when he had 37% against 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The candidate of the PL party gained one point. Both moves fall within the poll's two-point margin of error, but the five-point gap ends the technical tie of last week, g1 reports.

Writer Augusto Cury fell from 6% to 4%. Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado held 4%, Renan Santos stayed at 3% and former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema at 1%. The other candidates did not register. Undecided voters dropped from 8% to 5%, and the share saying they will vote blank or null or stay home rose from 7% to 10%.

How the poll was conducted

Quaest interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and over between September 24 and 27. The margin of error is two percentage points either way, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil's top election authority, under number BR-06520/2026. In the spontaneous question, where no list of names is read to respondents, Lula has 31% and Flávio Bolsonaro 27%.

Runoff scenario and rejection

In a possible runoff between the two, Quaest shows a numerical tie: 42% each. Last week Flávio Bolsonaro had 42% and Lula 41%, also tied. Rejection, measured as the share of voters who know a candidate and would not vote for them, stands at 56% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 54% for Lula. The president's government is approved by 46% of respondents and disapproved by 49%. Fear is split as well: 43% fear another Lula term and another 43% fear the return of the Bolsonaro family to power.

In the final stretch, both campaigns have stepped up appeals for a useful vote, Folha de S.Paulo reports. Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who has been convicted and jailed for an attempted coup d'état. According to InfoMoney, this is the first poll to partly capture public reaction to the provisional measure that banned betting shops, known as bets, in Brazil. The first round is scheduled for Sunday (October 4). Among respondents who have already picked a candidate, 76% call their choice final and 23% say they could still change.