Ten days before the first round of Brazil's presidential election, set for Oct. 4, surveys released on Tuesday and Wednesday by the polling institute Quaest show a divided electoral map. The polls covered seven states and the Federal District: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Pernambuco, Ceará, Paraíba and Tocantins. According to G1, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who is running for reelection, leads in three of them (Ceará, Paraíba and Pernambuco). Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is numerically ahead in one (Rio de Janeiro). The two are technically tied in four places: the Federal District, which holds the capital Brasília, Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Tocantins.

Globo, Brazil's largest media group, commissioned the eight surveys. Interviewers were in the field from Sept. 19 to 22, and every survey is registered with the electoral court. The margin of error is 3 percentage points in either direction, except in São Paulo, where it is 2 points, with a 95% confidence level. The largest samples were in São Paulo, with 1,800 respondents, and Minas Gerais, with 1,506; the smallest was in Tocantins, with 804.

First-round numbers

• São Paulo: Flávio Bolsonaro 34% (31%); Lula 31% (30%)
• Rio de Janeiro: Flávio Bolsonaro 37% (34%); Lula 30% (32%)
• Minas Gerais: Lula 35% (31%); Flávio Bolsonaro 30% (27%)
• Tocantins: Lula 37% (37%); Flávio Bolsonaro 35% (32%)
• Federal District: Flávio Bolsonaro 33% (31%); Lula 32% (28%)
• Ceará: Lula 55% (54%); Flávio Bolsonaro 23% (16%)
• Paraíba: Lula 54% (50%); Flávio Bolsonaro 23% (21%)
• Pernambuco: Lula 54% (51%); Flávio Bolsonaro 21% (21%)

Figures in parentheses are from the previous round of polls: Sept. 8 in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Pernambuco, Sept. 4 in Ceará, and Aug. 25 in Paraíba and Tocantins.

Runoff scenarios

In simulated runoff scenarios, the picture shifts. In São Paulo, Flávio Bolsonaro has 42% against 36% for Lula, according to Poder360; the six-point gap exceeds the two-point margin of error. In the Federal District, the senator reaches 49% to the president's 38%; the previous survey had the race at 45% to 38%, Brasil de Fato reported. Tocantins is a dead heat, with 44% each. In the Northeast, Lula is far ahead: 59% to 27% in Ceará and 58% to 25% in Pernambuco.

In the Federal District, Quaest also asked voters whether their presidential choice is settled. 80% said yes; 19% said they could still change their minds. Poder360 noted that in 2022 Jair Bolsonaro won São Paulo in the runoff with 55.24% of the vote, against 44.76% for Lula.

A national Quaest survey released on Monday (21) had already shown the two candidates technically tied. The institute will publish 18 more state-level surveys by Saturday (26). Voting in the first round takes place on Oct. 4.