Senator Cleitinho Azevedo of the Republicanos party leads the race for governor of Minas Gerais with 29% of voter support, according to a Quaest poll released Tuesday and commissioned by Brazilian broadcaster Globo. He is followed by federal lawmaker Patrus Ananias of the Workers' Party (PT), with 11%, and former Belo Horizonte mayor Alexandre Kalil of the PDT party, with 10%, according to G1, Globo's news portal.

Minas Gerais is Brazil's second most populous state and one of the country's largest electoral colleges, making its gubernatorial race closely watched nationally. In the poll's stimulated format, in which candidate names are read aloud to respondents, current governor Mateus Simões of the PSD party, who took office after Romeu Zema resigned to run for president, polled at 7%, followed by Gabriel Azevedo of the MDB party with 5%. Trailing candidates included Flávio Roscoe (PL) with 3%, Ben Mendes (Missão) with 2%, and two candidates tied at 1% each. Undecided voters made up 19% of respondents, while 12% said they would cast a blank or null vote or not vote at all.

The survey also measured spontaneous recall, without prompting names. In that format, Cleitinho scored 11%, Patrus 3% and Kalil 2%, while 80% of respondents said they were undecided, a sign that most candidates remain largely unknown to voters without prompting.

Runoff scenarios

Quaest simulated six possible runoff matchups. Cleitinho led in every head-to-head scenario tested: 48% to 27% against Kalil, 51% to 26% against Patrus, and 49% to 17% against Simões. In matchups excluding the senator, Kalil beat Patrus 42% to 18% and narrowly edged Simões 32% to 30%, while Patrus defeated Simões 35% to 31%.

According to G1, the poll interviewed 1,506 voters aged 16 and older between August 21 and 24, with a margin of error of three percentage points and a 95% confidence level. The survey was registered with Brazil's electoral court under number MG-04060/2026. Of those surveyed, 54% said their choice of candidate was final, while 45% said they could still change their vote before the October 4 election.

Voters also ranked the state's top problems: health care topped the list at 28%, followed by violence (13%), the economy (10%), education (9%), corruption (7%) and infrastructure (7%). Asked about the direction of the next state government, 43% favored fixing only what is not working, 37% wanted total change and 16% preferred continuity with the current administration's work.