President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has 36% of first-round presidential voting intentions against 29% for Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a batch of Quaest polls covering five states: Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Pernambuco and the Federal District, which includes the capital Brasilia. The writer Augusto Cury stands at 8%. The figures, from a stimulated survey in which candidates' names are read to respondents, were released on Tuesday by g1, the news portal of Grupo Globo, which commissioned the polls. Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado poll 3% each, and Romeu Zema 2%.

The state-by-state picture splits the race. Lula leads in Minas Gerais, 31% to 27%, and in Pernambuco, 51% to 21%. Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is ahead in Rio de Janeiro (34% to 32%), Sao Paulo (31% to 30%) and the Federal District (31% to 28%). According to g1, the gaps in those three states do not exceed the margin of error; in Minas Gerais and Pernambuco, Lula's lead is larger than the margin.

Movement since August 25

In the Federal District, Flavio Bolsonaro rose from 26% to 31% since the previous wave, released on August 25. In Minas Gerais the move went the other way: he fell from 31% to 27%, while Lula edged up from 30% to 31%. In Rio, undecided voters fell from 16% to 9%, and both front-runners gained ground, with Flavio at 34% and Lula at 32%. Cury advanced in all five states, reaching 8% in Minas, Sao Paulo and the Federal District, 6% in Pernambuco and 5% in Rio; the previous wave had him between 1% and 3%. Caiado posts his best number in the Federal District, 12%, and Zema has 6% in Minas.

Methodology and the Pablo Marcal scenario

Quaest interviewed voters aged 16 and older from September 4 to 7. Sample sizes were 1,800 in Sao Paulo, 1,506 in Minas Gerais, 1,302 in Rio de Janeiro, 1,302 in Pernambuco and 1,104 in the Federal District. The margin of error is two percentage points in Sao Paulo and three points elsewhere, with a 95% confidence level. The polls are registered with the TSE, Brazil's electoral court, including MG-04716/2026 and BR-04705/2026.

CNN Brasil, which also reported the batch, says Quaest tested a scenario including Pablo Marcal in Minas Gerais: Lula would have 32%, Flavio Bolsonaro 28% and Marcal 2%. Marcal is barred from running and is waiting for the TSE to rule on his candidacy. On undecided voters in Minas, g1 reports 15%, while CNN Brasil recorded 8%.

Quaest calls Minas Gerais the country's "pendulum state": every president elected since 1989 has won it, and it is Brazil's second-largest electorate, according to g1. In 2022, Lula took 50.20% of the vote there against 49.80% for Jair Bolsonaro. The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, a runoff follows on October 25.