Polls by the Quaest institute released on Tuesday (September 8) show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the PL presidential candidate and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, numerically ahead of President Lula in a hypothetical runoff in four of the five units of the federation surveyed: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and the Federal District. Lula leads only in Pernambuco, in the Northeast. The surveys were commissioned by Globo and conducted between September 4 and 7.

According to g1, Bolsonaro's lead exceeds the margin of error in São Paulo and in the Federal District. In Rio de Janeiro, the six-point gap sits at the limit of the three-point margin. In Minas Gerais, the two are technically tied, with Bolsonaro ahead in raw numbers.

• São Paulo: Flávio Bolsonaro 41%, Lula 33%, blank/spoiled/will not vote 16%, undecided 10%
• Minas Gerais: Flávio Bolsonaro 40%, Lula 37%, blank/spoiled/will not vote 15%, undecided 8%
• Rio de Janeiro: Flávio Bolsonaro 43%, Lula 37%, blank/spoiled/will not vote 15%, undecided 5%
• Pernambuco: Lula 57%, Flávio Bolsonaro 26%, blank/spoiled/will not vote 11%, undecided 6%
• Federal District: Flávio Bolsonaro 45%, Lula 38%, blank/spoiled/will not vote 13%, undecided 4%

The message from Minas

Minas Gerais carries the main political reading of the round. According to political scientist Felipe Nunes, in an analysis published by g1, every presidential winner from 1989 to 2022 also carried Minas in the decisive round. "The inversion is numerical. But the political signal is relevant," he wrote.

In July, Quaest had Lula at 38% and Bolsonaro at 35% in Minas. The score now reads 40% to 37%. The shift comes alongside a 41% to 41% tie between the two in Quaest's national poll released on September 7. In that survey's Southeast break, Bolsonaro had 43% to Lula's 34%, according to g1.

Electoral weight and calendar

São Paulo (34.1 million voters), Minas Gerais (16.3 million) and Rio de Janeiro (12.8 million) are Brazil's three largest electorates. In all, 158.7 million Brazilians are eligible to vote this year. The margin of error is two percentage points in São Paulo and three points elsewhere, in either direction, with a 95% confidence level. According to CartaCapital, the polls heard 1,800 respondents in São Paulo, 1,506 in Minas Gerais, 1,302 in Rio de Janeiro and 1,104 in the Federal District.

Brazil votes in the first round of the presidential election on October 4. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the runoff is scheduled for October 25. All five surveys are registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).