Senator and former governor Omar Aziz (PSD) leads the race for governor of Amazonas with 26% of voting intentions, according to a Quaest poll released on Tuesday (25) and commissioned by the Rede Amazônica TV network. Lawmaker Roberto Cidade (União Brasil) comes in second with 18%, followed by businesswoman and professor Maria do Carmo Seffair (PL) with 16% and former Manaus mayor David Almeida (Avante) with 15%. According to Folha de S.Paulo, the three are statistically tied within the three-point margin of error.
Aziz is running on a coalition of PSD, MDB and Republicanos. An ally of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), he is the Senate rapporteur of the constitutional amendment that would end Brazil's six-days-on, one-day-off work schedule, known as the escala 6x1. Cidade, a former president of the Amazonas Legislative Assembly, belongs to the political group of Wilson Lima (União Brasil), who is running for the Senate. Maria do Carmo leads the state campaign of presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza) scored 2%, Isael Munduruku (Rede) 1%, and Gilberto Vasconcelos (PSTU) did not register. Blank and null votes totaled 6%, with 16% of voters undecided, according to G1.
It is the institute's first poll in the state since candidacies were made official. In the previous survey, in March, Aziz had 33%, while David Almeida and Maria do Carmo were statistically tied at 23% and 21%, respectively. Cidade's name was not tested at the time.
Rejection rates and runoff scenarios
In the spontaneous survey, in which voters are not shown a list of names, Aziz also leads with 10%, but 70% did not answer. Quaest also simulated six runoff scenarios. Aziz comes out ahead in every matchup in which he is included: 45% to 44% against Maria do Carmo, 44% to 40% against Cidade and 49% to 36% against David Almeida. Without the senator, Cidade would beat Maria do Carmo by 43% to 38% and David Almeida by 41% to 39%, while the PL candidate would edge the former Manaus mayor by 41% to 40%.
David Almeida has the highest rejection rate: 54% say they know him and would not vote for him. Aziz and Cidade follow with 41% each, while Maria do Carmo has 26%. For 57% of respondents, their vote is already final, while 43% say they could still change candidates before the October 4 election.
Asked about the profile of the next state government, 34% prefer an ally of Lula, 28% an ally of Flávio Bolsonaro and 33% want an independent governor. Health care was named the state's main problem by 32% of voters, followed by violence at 17%. The state government has a 56% approval rating, but 58% say Wilson Lima does not deserve to elect a successor.
The poll surveyed 804 voters between August 21 and 24. The confidence level is 95% and the maximum margin of error is three percentage points in either direction. The survey was registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the number BR-06252/2026.