Senator Wellington Fagundes (PL) holds a narrow numerical lead in the race for governor of Mato Grosso, a major farming state in Brazil's center-west, with 27% of voting intentions against 23% for Governor Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos), who is seeking reelection. The figures come from a Quaest poll released on Tuesday (25) and commissioned by the Rede Matogrossense de Comunicação (RMC), a local media group. With a margin of error of three percentage points in either direction, the two are statistically tied.
In the prompted survey, in which respondents are shown the candidate list, physician and professor Natasha Slhessarenko (PSD), known as Doutora Natasha, ranks third with 8%. Sargento Laudicério (Agir) and Rafaell Milas (Missão) each have 2%, while Maurício Coelho (Mobiliza) has 1%. Another 29% said they would cast a blank or null ballot or would vote for none of the candidates, and 8% were undecided, according to results published by g1 and Folha de S.Paulo.
In the spontaneous version, where no names are read out, Pivetta leads with 9% against 6% for Fagundes, and 78% of voters did not name anyone. Quaest also measured how firm voting intentions are: 52% of respondents said their choice is final, while 47% admitted they could change candidates before the first round on October 4.
Runoff scenarios and rejection rates
In hypothetical runoff matchups, Fagundes would beat Pivetta by 38% to 29% and Doutora Natasha by 45% to 20%. In a contest between the governor and the PSD candidate, Pivetta would win by 34% to 23%. Undecided voters in these scenarios range from 22% to 27%.
The poll also gauged rejection levels. Fagundes is known by 70% of voters: 38% said they would vote for him and 32% said they would not. Pivetta is unknown to 46% of the electorate; 30% would vote for the governor and 24% reject him. The state government posts 53% approval against 12% disapproval. On political alliances, 41% prefer a governor aligned with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), a presidential pre-candidate, 20% want an ally of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), and 34% prefer an independent.
A businessman and farm producer, Pivetta took office in 2022 after Governor Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), under whom he served as vice governor, stepped down. He previously served three terms as mayor of Lucas do Rio Verde and as a state lawmaker, according to Folha. Fagundes has been a senator since 2015, served six terms in the lower house of Congress, and represents the bolsonarista camp, the political movement of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in the race for the Palácio Paiaguás, the seat of the state government. Quaest interviewed 804 voters aged 16 and over in Mato Grosso between August 21 and 24; the confidence level is 95%, and the poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under numbers MT-04846/2026 and BR-00817/2026.