Former Rio city mayor Eduardo Paes (PSD) leads the race for governor of Rio de Janeiro state with 39% of voting intentions, according to a Quaest poll released on Tuesday (Sept 8) and commissioned by the media group Globo. His main rival, Douglas Ruas (PL), has 18%, 21 points behind.

Former state governor Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) stands at 8%, followed by Cyro Garcia (PSTU) with 2% and by William Siri (PSOL), André Marinho (Novo) and Coronel Busnello (Missão) with 1% each. Juliete (UP) and Luan Monteiro (PCO) scored zero. In Quaest's previous round, Paes had 37%, Ruas 18% and Garotinho 7%.

Runoff scenarios

Paes wins every second-round scenario tested by the pollster. Against Ruas, the score would be 52% to 26%. Against Garotinho, 53% to 17%. The poll's margin of error is three percentage points.

The share of undecided voters fell from 20% to 16%, and blank or spoiled ballots from 16% to 14%. Quaest also found that 34% of voters say they could still change their vote before election day, down from 42% in the previous round.

Senate race

In the election for Rio de Janeiro's two Senate seats, Benedita da Silva (PT) leads with 15%, followed by former mayor Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) with 8%. Carlos Jordy (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD) and Carlos Portinho (PL) have 6% each, and Mônica Benício (PSOL) has 4%. Undecided voters reach 24%, and blank or spoiled ballots 25%.

Quaest interviewed 1,302 people aged 16 and older between Friday (Sept 4) and Monday (Sept 7). The confidence level is 95%, and the poll is registered with the TSE, Brazil's electoral court, under number RJ-04768/2026. The first round of Brazil's national elections is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate passes 50% of valid votes, the top two face a runoff on October 25.