Luciano Zucco (PL) and Juliana Brizola (PDT) are in a statistical tie in the race for governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, according to a Quaest poll released on Monday (24). Zucco, of the party of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 26% of voting intentions, against 23% for Brizola, within the three-point margin of error. The survey, commissioned by the RBS media group, interviewed 900 voters aged 16 and over between August 20 and 23, G1 reports.
Gabriel Souza (MDB) comes third with 9%, followed by Marcelo Maranata (PSDB) with 2% and Priscila Voigt (UP) with 1%. Cesar Pontes (PCO) and Rejane de Oliveira (PSTU) scored 0%. Undecided voters total 27%, and 12% say they will cast a blank or null ballot or will not vote. For 61% of those surveyed, the choice is final; 39% say they may still change their vote before the October 4 election.
In the spontaneous version of the poll, in which candidates' names are not read out, Zucco leads with 13%, followed by Brizola with 7% and Souza with 2%, while undecided voters reach 74%. The survey has a 95% confidence level and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number RS-06875/2026.
Runoff scenarios
Quaest tested three second-round matchups. In a head-to-head race, Brizola has 36% and Zucco 33%, also a statistical tie. Against Souza, the PDT candidate would win by 32% to 24%. In a Zucco-Souza contest, the PL candidate would come out on top by 33% to 22%.
Rejection rates and the Leite government
Brizola is the most rejected candidate: 36% of voters say they know her and would never vote for her, while 33% still do not know her. Zucco has a 19% rejection rate but is unknown to 53% of those surveyed. Souza is the least known of the top three: 72% say they do not know him.
The government of Governor Eduardo Leite is disapproved by 45% of voters and approved by 42%, and 56% say he does not deserve to elect a successor. Health and floods tie as the state's top problem, each cited by 22% of respondents, in a state still recovering from the historic floods of 2024. On the next governor's profile, 39% prefer an independent, 32% want an ally of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and 25% an ally of President Lula.
In the Senate race, the poll shows a five-way statistical tie for the state's two seats, according to InfoMoney. Combining votes, Manuela d'Ávila (PSOL) leads with 12%, followed by Pimenta (PT) and Marcel van Hattem (Novo) with 9% each, and Sanderson (PL) and Rigotto (MDB) with 8% each. Undecided voters total 37%.