The race for the two Senate seats in Alagoas, a state in Brazil's Northeast, is wide open, according to a Quaest poll released on Monday (24). Federal lawmaker and former lower house speaker Arthur Lira (PP) leads with 20% of voting intentions, followed by senator and former governor Renan Calheiros (MDB), with 18%, and Marina JHC (PSDB), wife of former Maceió mayor JHC, with 15%. Given the three-point margin of error, the three are in a statistical tie, according to O Globo's Pulso blog. The survey was commissioned by TV Asa Branca Alagoas, a local broadcaster.
In October, each Brazilian state and the Federal District will elect two senators, renewing 54 of the upper house's 81 seats, so voters must pick two different names on the ballot. In Quaest's prompted poll, each respondent answered twice, once for each seat, and the combined results add up to 100% of voting intentions. See the numbers:
- Arthur Lira (PP): 20%
- Renan (MDB): 18%
- Marina JHC (PSDB): 15%
- Davi Davino Filho (Republicanos): 10%
- Dr. Wanderley (MDB): 5%
- Mariedson (Democrata): 1%
- Alexandre Fleming (UP): 0%
- Blank, null or will not vote: 12%
- Undecided: 19%
Looking only at the first seat, Lira has 25%, Renan 21% and Marina JHC 17%. For the second seat, the order flips: Renan has 16%, Lira 15% and Marina 13%. Davi Davino Filho scores 10% for the first seat and 11% for the second, also statistically tied with Marina within the margin of error, according to Pulso. In the spontaneous poll, in which no names are shown to voters, indecision dominates: 86% could not name a candidate. Lira was mentioned by 4% and Renan by 3%.
Rejection and decided votes
The two best-known candidates are also the most rejected. Renan is known by 82% of respondents: 48% say they would vote for him and 34% say they would not. Lira is known by 79%, with 48% saying they would vote for him and 31% rejecting him. Marina JHC is known by 52% of voters, of whom 30% would vote for her and 22% would not. For 61% of those polled, their Senate choice is already final, while 38% say they could still change their minds before the election, scheduled for October 4.
Quaest interviewed 804 people aged 16 and over between August 20 and 23. The margin of error is three percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under numbers AL-05503/2026 and BR-09091/2026. The same poll showed the Alagoas governor's race in a statistical tie, with Renan Filho (MDB) at 42% and JHC (PSDB) at 40%.