The governor of Paraíba, a state in Brazil's Northeast region, Lucas Ribeiro of the Progressive Party (PP), leads voting intentions for his reelection bid with 38%, according to a Quaest poll released on Tuesday (25). Former João Pessoa mayor Cícero Lucena of the MDB party polls second with 19%, and senator Efraim Filho of the PL party has 18%, according to G1 and Folha de S.Paulo.

The remaining candidates register low numbers in the poll's stimulated format, where respondents are shown the full list of names: Pedro Coutinho has 2%, Camilo Duarte 1%, and Yuri Ezequiel did not register. Blank, null or non-voting responses total 10%, while undecided voters represent 12%. In the unprompted version of the survey, where names are not shown to respondents, Ribeiro also leads with 26% of mentions, followed by Lucena and Efraim Filho tied at 7% each.

The survey was commissioned by local broadcasters TV Cabo Branco and TV Paraíba and polled 804 people aged 16 and older in face-to-face interviews conducted between August 21 and 24. The margin of error is three percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with Brazil's top electoral court, the TSE, under code PB-07850/2026.

Runoff scenarios and approval ratings

The poll also simulated three potential runoff scenarios. Ribeiro would win both matchups in which he appears, beating Efraim Filho 47% to 33% and Lucena 48% to 29%. In a hypothetical scenario without the incumbent governor, Lucena would edge out Efraim Filho, 39% to 32%.

Ribeiro's approval ratings are also favorable: 61% of respondents approve of his administration, against 17% who disapprove, while 22% did not answer. Among the opposition candidates, rejection rates run high. According to G1, 46% of voters say they know Cícero Lucena and would not vote for him, and the same share gives the same answer about Efraim Filho.

Paraíba's gubernatorial election takes place on October 4, alongside the rest of Brazil's national vote. According to the poll, 69% of respondents say their choice of candidate is already final, while 30% say they could still change their vote before election day.