São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) holds 40% of voting intentions in his reelection bid, against 27% for former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT), according to a Quaest poll released on Tuesday, August 25. Commissioned by Globo, Brazil's largest media group, the survey interviewed 1,800 voters in person between August 21 and 24, with a margin of error of two percentage points either way and a 95% confidence level.
The remaining candidates trail far behind the two front-runners. Policial Edjane (Agir), a police officer, registers 2%, while Vera Lúcia (PSTU), Carlos Machado (PCB), Izadora Dias (PCO) and Vivian Mendes (UP) hold 1% each, according to CartaCapital. Another 14% said they would cast a blank or null ballot or skip the vote, and 13% were undecided. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number SP-06946/2026.
Compared with Quaest's previous round, released on July 29, Tarcísio slipped one point from 41% while Haddad rose one point from 26%. The governor's numerical lead narrowed from 15 to 13 points, a shift inside the margin of error, according to Estadão Conteúdo.
Runoff scenarios and voter breakdown
Tarcísio also leads the second-round scenarios simulated by Quaest against Haddad, according to CNN Brasil. CartaCapital reports that the governor remains the favorite in an eventual runoff against the Workers' Party candidate. Under Brazilian rules, a runoff is held if no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the October election. Haddad, a former mayor of the city of São Paulo, left the Finance Ministry to run for the state government.
The demographic breakdown published by G1 shows Tarcísio's widest advantage among evangelical voters, at 49% to Haddad's 17%, with a four-point margin in that segment. Among Black voters, Haddad leads numerically by 33% to 27%, a statistical tie given the segment's eight-point margin. The institute also measured the state government's approval: 56% approve of Tarcísio's administration and 31% disapprove, according to G1.
The same round measured the presidential race in São Paulo, the country's largest electorate, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 30% and President Lula (PT) at 29%, inside the margin of error. In the state's Senate race, Derrite and Marina Silva have 12% each, with Simone Tebet at 11%, all in a technical tie, while André do Prado registers 7%. Brazilians vote in October.