Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL party leads the presidential race among voters in São Paulo, the state with the largest electorate in Brazil. A Real Time Big Data poll released on Monday (Sept. 21) gives him 51% of voter intentions in a hypothetical runoff in the state, against 45% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the PT. In the first round, Flávio polls 41% to Lula's 35%.
The institute interviewed 2,000 voters in the state between Sept. 16 and 19. The margin of error is two percentage points either way, and the survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-09702/2026, according to InfoMoney. Trailing the two leaders in the first round are Renan Santos (Missão) with 6%, and Augusto Cury (Avante) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 4% each. Lula is the most rejected candidate in the state, at 53%; Flávio follows at 48%. The president is disapproved by 56% of São Paulo voters and approved by 41%.
Senate race
The same round tested the race for the two Senate seats up for grabs in São Paulo. In the consolidated scenario, which adds first and second votes, federal lawmaker Guilherme Derrite (PP) leads numerically with 20%, followed by state lawmaker André do Prado (PL) with 18% and former minister Simone Tebet (PSB) with 17%. Former environment minister Marina Silva (Rede) polls 14%, and former minister Ricardo Salles (Novo) has 9%.
With a two-point margin of error, CNN Brasil describes the race as a three-way statistical tie among Derrite, André do Prado and Tebet. Poder360 counts four names with a shot at the two seats. The Senate survey was paid for by the institute itself and is registered with the TSE under number SP-07495/2026.
The week of polls
The national picture is tighter. A Palver poll reported on Monday by the Painel column of Folha de S.Paulo shows a statistical tie between Flávio and Lula in the first round, with the senator numerically ahead, 42% to 41%. A Datafolha survey on Sept. 17 had the runoff tied, with 46% for Lula and 44% for Flávio. In Quaest's Sept. 14 poll, the senator was numerically ahead for the first time in the institute's series, 42% to 40%.
Four polling firms, Quaest, AtlasIntel, Datafolha and Real Time Big Data, have registered new national surveys with the TSE for release between Monday and Thursday (Sept. 24), according to InfoMoney. These will be the first polls after the government announced a 15.04% increase in the Bolsa Família cash transfer program. The first round of the election takes place in less than two weeks.