A RealTime Big Data poll released on Monday (Sept 14) gives São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas, of the Republicanos party, 53% of voter intentions in the first round of the state election. Fernando Haddad, of the Workers' Party (PT), trails with 36%. The 17-point gap is well beyond the two percentage point margin of error. The figures were published by UOL and detailed by the news site Metrópoles.

The institute interviewed 2,000 voters across São Paulo state between Sept 9 and 12. The confidence level is 95% and the survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number SP-02794/2026. According to Metrópoles, "if the scenario holds, Tarcísio would be reelected in the first round". Blank, spoiled and undecided answers add up to 9% of the total.

In the spontaneous survey, where candidates' names are not presented to respondents, Tarcísio has 28% and Haddad 15%. Other candidates add up to 2%. In a runoff between the two leaders, the governor would take 57% against 38%.

Datafolha points the same way

Independent figures back the reading of the São Paulo race. A Datafolha poll commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, released on Friday (Sept 11), puts Tarcísio at 49% and Haddad at 29%. In the previous round, released on Aug 26, the score was 45% to 27%. VEJA magazine summed it up: "Tarcísio moves up and has a chance of reelection in the first round".

Datafolha interviewed 1,610 voters between Sept 8 and 11, with a two percentage point margin of error and a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the electoral courts as BR-03904/2026 and SP-04189/2026. In a runoff scenario, the institute gives Tarcísio 56% and Haddad 35%.

In Brazil, a candidate can only win a governorship in the first round with more than half of the valid votes. The first round is set for Oct 4. Tarcísio is running for a second consecutive term. Haddad is trying to return the PT to power in the country's largest state electorate.