A Veritá poll released on Sunday (Sept. 6) shows a statistical tie in Brazil's presidential race. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, of the right-wing PL and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 38.9% of voter intentions in a first round. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers' Party (PT), has 38.4%. The half-point gap sits inside the survey's two-point margin of error, according to CNN Brasil.

Writer Augusto Cury, of the Avante party, ranks third with 12.2%. He is followed by Renan Santos (Missão) with 3.7%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 1.9% and Pablo Marçal (PRTB) with 1.4%. Five other candidates score 0.4% or less. Blank or spoiled ballots account for 1.1% of respondents, and 0.9% did not answer.

Runoff scenarios

In a head-to-head contest, Flavio Bolsonaro would have 48.5% against 43.1% for Lula. The 5.4-point lead exceeds the margin of error. Blank or spoiled ballots reach 4.9% in that scenario, and 3.6% did not answer.

Lula leads the four other matchups tested by the institute. The president has 35.6% against 27% for Cury; 38.4% against 28.6% for Marçal; 37.8% against 19.3% for Renan Santos, a leader of the free-market MBL movement; and 36.8% against 24.9% for Caiado, a former governor of Goiás state. CNN Brasil notes that Marçal filed his candidacy but is barred from office for eight years under a ruling by the São Paulo electoral court, with appeals pending before the TSE, Brazil's top electoral court.

Methodology

Veritá interviewed 3,804 voters nationwide between Sept. 1 and Sept. 4. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The institute paid for the survey with its own funds and registered it with the TSE under protocol BR-09426/2026. The portal GP1 published the same figures.

The first round is set for Oct. 4. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the top two advance to a runoff on Oct. 25.