Around R$ 25 billion ($4.6 billion) is expected to shift from licensed sports betting platforms straight into illicit offshore websites following the ban enacted by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. That sum equals more than 16 million Brazilian monthly minimum wages escaping the formal economy and losing basic consumer protections.

The estimate comes from British gaming consultancy H2 Gambling Capital, reported by Folha de S.Paulo. According to the firm, licensed operators generated about R$ 40 billion annually in gross gaming revenue, comparable to the annual grocery spending of millions of Brazilian households, with about 60% of that volume expected to persist on unapproved sites.

Shift to offshore platforms

Understanding the metric: Gross gaming revenue measures total wagers minus paid winnings. When governments ban legal operators, betting flows typically shift to online platforms based in tax havens that remain reachable over the internet.

With this migration, Brazil's underground betting volume could jump from R$ 17 billion to R$ 42 billion a year, exceeding the R$ 41 billion seen in 2024 before national regulation began. Lula's provisional measure blocks domestic banking transfers like Pix to betting firms, but H2 survey data shows 39% of Brazilian gamblers already kept active accounts on unauthorized offshore platforms.

The provisional decree remains valid for 120 days and requires approval from Congress, while industry groups such as the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) have challenged the ban at the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Since 2024, the federal government had sold 85 operating licenses for R$ 30 million each, funds the Finance Ministry stated will not be refunded.