The presidential poll tracker of BBC News Brasil has moved to show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Lula in a runoff scenario, the outlet reported on Tuesday (Sept 8). The update replaces the tracker's earlier reading, a statistical tie between the two men. Brazilians vote in the first round on Oct. 4; if no candidate wins more than half of valid votes, the runoff is set for Oct. 25.
The tracker pools national voting intention polls in an interactive dashboard and is recalculated as new surveys are added. Its shift follows a run of runoff readings with Flávio numerically in front: a survey by the Gerp institute put the senator at 47% against the president's 40%, and on Wednesday (Sept 9) the Palver institute released 46% to 44% in his favor, a gap that JOTA and UOL describe as a statistical tie because it falls within the margin of error.
First round and the states
In first-round voting intentions, Palver found a tie at 40% between Lula, the Workers' Party incumbent seeking reelection, and Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-wing PL, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, as CNN Brasil also reported. State-level polls by the Quaest institute, released before the BBC update, had already shown the senator ahead in runoff scenarios in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and the Federal District, with Lula leading only in Pernambuco.
What is settled and what is provisional
What the data confirms so far is a sequence of runoff readings with Flávio numerically ahead. The size of his lead remains provisional: Palver's 2-point gap sits inside the margin of error, and the tracker shifts again with every new poll. Brazilian law requires each survey's sample size and margin of error to be registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the body that runs the election.
To follow the race without leaning on a single number, readers can check each poll's registration in the TSE disclosure system, compare successive results from the same institute and watch whether gaps fall inside or outside the margin of error. The next national polls will show whether the tracker's new reading holds.