With Brazil's presidential election less than three weeks away, the poll aggregator of BBC News Brasil shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro technically tied in every runoff scenario. In data compiled through September 15, each had 44% of voting intentions. The Datafolha poll released on Thursday (17) matched the picture: 46% for Lula against 44% for Flávio, a gap within the two-point margin of error.
In first-round scenarios, Datafolha, Brazil's best-known polling institute, gives Lula 39% and Flávio 36%, another technical tie. Augusto Cury, a self-help writer running for the small Avante party, has 6%, followed by Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 4%, Renan Santos (Missão) with 3% and Romeu Zema (Novo) with 2%. Blank, null or no-candidate answers add up to 6%, and 3% are undecided. The institute heard 2,002 voters between September 15 and 17. The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and Folha de S.Paulo and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-04029/2026. In the BBC aggregator, which pools results from several pollsters, first-round scenarios through September 15 showed Lula at 39% and Flávio at 35%.
This was the first Datafolha round after Tuesday's (15) session of the Supreme Federal Court, Brazil's top court, marked by open disputes among justices in the case involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and former banker Daniel Vorcaro. According to InfoMoney, the numbers show no significant change between the last two rounds. Flávio rose from 33% on August 21 to 36% now; Lula has held at 39% since then. InfoMoney also reports that Flávio has intensified criticism of Moraes and sought to link the court crisis to Lula, while the PT campaign argues that any irregularities should be investigated.
The voters who may decide it
The BBC notes that at this point in 2022 Lula led Jair Bolsonaro by 9 points, 49% to 40%, according to Polling Data, the broadcaster's partner. This year the outlet examined four polls, Atlas/Bloomberg, Nexus/BTG, Quaest and Datafolha, to map the voter groups that could decide the election. The group most cited by political scientists is made up of voters with no clear allegiance to either pole: they account for 32% of the electorate according to Quaest and 18% are "non-polarized" according to Nexus.
"I think this election will be decided by a very small share of the electorate, around 10%, at most 15%, that has no party ties or necessarily an ideological preference, and is more open to backing whatever the candidates put before them," said Yuri Sanches, head of political risk and political analysis at AtlasIntel.
Augusto Cury showed the weight of these voters. After the August 23 debate on TV Bandeirantes, he reached 10% in the BBC aggregator; he now stands at 6%. In Quaest polling, he had 24% among independent voters on September 2, ahead of Lula (21%) and Flávio (9%), and fell to 15% in the September 14 round.
The Bolsa Família split
The Datafolha cross-tab published by g1 shows where each candidate dominates. Among voters who receive Bolsa Família, the country's main cash-transfer program for poor families, or live with a recipient, Lula has 53% in the first round against 28% for Flávio, and 60% to 33% in a runoff. Among those with no link to the program, the senator leads, 37% to 36%. The margin of error for that subgroup is five points. According to g1, most interviews were held before Thursday's announcement of a 15% increase in the benefit: the minimum payment will rise from 600 to 691 reais, with payments starting October 19.
The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the top two go to a runoff on October 25.