Brazilian agribusiness leaders are organizing to place allies not only at the Agriculture Ministry but also at the Environment Ministry and the Mines and Energy Ministry in a possible government of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), according to a Folha de S.Paulo report published on Friday (16). The maneuvering comes in the final stretch of the presidential runoff, in which the senator faces Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

The sector's argument, according to Folha, is that both ministries deal directly with farming. The Environment Ministry runs Brazil's environmental licensing and enforcement policy, which sets the pace for approving works and opening new production areas. The Mines and Energy Ministry decides fuel policy, including the mandatory blends of ethanol and biodiesel, markets supplied by farmers, and influences the price of diesel, the main transport cost for producers.

Open race at the Agriculture Ministry

For the Agriculture Ministry (known as Mapa), Folha names federal deputy Pedro Lupion (Republicanos-PR) as the favorite. Lupion chairs the FPA, the powerful farm caucus in Congress, and backed Flávio's candidacy. Also mentioned are economist and farmer Geraldo Melo Filho, currently agriculture secretary of São Paulo state under Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), and federal deputy Alceu Moreira (MDB-RS), a name raised in negotiations with the centrist MDB party. The report does not detail the names being floated for the environment and energy posts.

The backstage jockeying is advancing while the candidate avoids discussing names in public. In an interview with TV Globo on Friday, Flávio said that appointing his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, "is not on the radar", and ruled out his brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro, as foreign minister, according to G1. Datafolha and Quaest polls released this week show a statistical tie between Flávio and Lula in the runoff.

For producers, the shape of the next cabinet affects costs and timelines: environmental licensing determines how fast production can expand, and fuel policy weighs both on the diesel bill and on demand for the sugarcane and soy that go into ethanol and biodiesel. For consumers, the same decisions show up later at the pump and in food prices, which track freight and production costs in the countryside.