Brazilians who placed their first online bet after the country regulated the sector in January 2025 soon started falling behind on their bills. An unpublished study reported by Folha de S.Paulo found that in the 12 months after a first bet, the proportion of people in default became on average 20% higher among bettors than the rise in delinquency rates among those who do not bet. The research, which put a number on the damage caused by virtual games, also found worse access to credit for new gamblers.

Credit cards show the damage most clearly. The fraction of the card bill left unpaid grew by an average of 38.7% in the first year of betting, after netting out the movement of the same indicator among non-bettors.

The study was conducted by Sergio Firpo, a professor at Insper, a Sao Paulo business school, with researchers from Stone, a Brazilian banking and payments company that serves entrepreneurs and self-employed workers. The paper, "Online Betting and Financial Distress: Evidence from Brazil", has not yet been published in a scientific journal, and Folha is so far the only outlet to have reported its findings.

How the score was measured

The method is what makes the numbers stick. Records of deposits and payments from millions of clients let the economists identify who moved money via Pix, Brazil's instant payment system, to betting platforms, pin down the date of each first bet and track bettors against non-bettors. Patterns such as small recurring transfers to the same company registrations separated wagers from ordinary spending. The researchers watched the game through bank statements instead of relying on what gamblers might report.

The sample covers people who started betting after January 2025, when online gambling was regulated in Brazil, from virtual casino games like the tigrinho to sports betting tips. The bill lands on two fronts: more trouble paying existing debts and worse access to credit.