President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 33%, the lowest reading since the British newspaper the Financial Times began its polling series with the research firm Focaldata in May. The survey, released on Saturday, shows a 3 percentage point drop from the previous round and lands less than two months before the November midterm elections, when all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and part of the Senate will be contested.
The damage is concentrated in the economy. Nearly two thirds of voters say the American economy is heading in the wrong direction, and 57% say their personal finances have worsened since Trump returned to the White House, up from 53% in the previous poll. The strain appears in daily spending, above all fuel and food. The historical parallel is direct: inflation wore down the government of Joe Biden and helped open Trump's path back to office, and he won promising to lower the cost of living, a promise still unfulfilled.
What it means for Brazil
For Brazil and Latin America, the most relevant variables are the calendar and the trade channel. A president with falling approval and a Congress up for grabs tends to spend political capital on the domestic agenda. The immediate test is tariff policy: according to the poll, 56% of registered voters disapprove of the 50% tariff applied to about US$20 billion in Canadian products, and Canada answered with tariffs of its own, raising costs for consumers in both countries. Brazilian exporters who rely on the American market are watching closely, because a weakened Trump may either seek quick deals or harden protectionism, depending on the November result. Brazil also votes in October, in a presidential election of its own, and the American case shows how much the cost of living can weigh at the ballot box.
The Iran war, the Republican base and the midterms
An analysis by Guga Chacra published by G1 links the decline to the war between the United States and Iran, a conflict the Financial Times had already been measuring as a drag on the president: a July poll by the paper showed the conflict pulling Trump's approval ratings down ahead of the November midterms. Iran has promised a "quick and painful" response to new American attacks, according to Poder360, and the British paper reported on September 1 that US diesel prices were climbing as the conflict escalated.
Even the Republican base is feeling the wear. Among voters who identify with the party, Trump's approval fell to 72%, more than 2 points below the previous round and the lowest reading of the series for that group. On jobs and the economy specifically, approval among Republicans dropped to 53%, nearly 8 points lower than a month earlier.
The numbers point to a difficult November for the Republican Party. In the so-called generic ballot for Congress, Democrats lead by 7.5 points, up from 5 points in the previous survey. Overall, 46% of voters say Trump's presence makes it harder for Republican candidates to win, while 17% say it helps; among independents, 53% see damage. A presidential endorsement now repels more than it attracts: 43% say they would be less likely to vote for a congressional candidate backed by Trump, against 23% who would be more likely.