The reelection campaign of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has decided to publicly revive the record of Justice Alexandre de Moraes from before he joined the STF, Brazil's Supreme Federal Court. The goal is to undo the link between the two that the opposition has built. The strategy is detailed in a Poder360 report published on Wednesday (Sept 16), one day after the court ended its session on the crisis around Moraes in the Banco Master case without a decision.
Tuesday's session (Sept 15) was interrupted with a 4-3 vote to keep separate the cases of Moraes and Justice André Mendonça. Justice Flávio Dino asked for more time to review the file, delaying the judgment. According to G1, until the case is returned, the justices cannot decide whether there are grounds to open an investigation into Moraes over a Federal Police report that identified 52 messages from former banker Daniel Vorcaro with an alleged connection to the justice.
The record before the court
The campaign's core argument is that Moraes has no political alignment with Lula. Then president Michel Temer (MDB) nominated Moraes to the court in 2017, after he ran the Justice Ministry in the same government. Earlier, he served as justice secretary (2002 to 2005) and public security secretary (2015 and 2016) of São Paulo state under Governor Geraldo Alckmin (then PSDB). Running public security, he oversaw clashes between the Military Police and protesters in 2015 and 2016, an approach still criticized by São Paulo members of Lula's Workers Party, according to Poder360. In 2018, as a justice, Moraes voted to reject a habeas corpus filed by Lula's defense against the early enforcement of his sentence in the Guarujá triplex case. Lula had been jailed since April of that year.
Another front is the timeline of Banco Master. The campaign wants to remind voters that the bank began operating under President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and was liquidated under Lula. According to Poder360, the Workers Party's line is that the crisis around the justice is a matter for the judiciary and should not become part of the presidential race. The government says everyone involved must be investigated. In an interview with Record TV on Tuesday, Lula said everyone must be investigated "without distinction" and that no one should escape judgment when there is suspicion or accusation.
A "gift" for Flávio Bolsonaro
Assessments inside the president's circle diverge on the electoral effect of the session, Poder360 found. One reading is that the court crisis helps neither Lula nor Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and hurts the country. Another is that the episode does not damage Lula at the polls. There is also a more critical view: according to columnist Bela Megale of the newspaper O Globo, government members assess that the bloc of justices allied with Moraes would have handed Flávio Bolsonaro "a gift" in the ruling. CNN Brasil analyst Caio Junqueira wrote that the day Moraes "won the first round" inside the court had "as its reverse effect a political gift for Flávio Bolsonaro".
The campaigns are already fighting over the issue on television. In Tuesday's televised electoral program, Flávio Bolsonaro devoted his slot to tying the president to the justice. "The current president divided his power with Alexandre de Moraes. And, in the end, Brazil was left with no president at all. No command," the senator said, according to G1. The Workers Party program focused on the senator's exposure in the Master case, said he was "caught asking Daniel Vorcaro for 134 million reais" and ended with the slogan "Flávio, the worst of the Bolsonaros". Lula repeated his promise of a sweeping investigation: "It is essential that everyone be investigated, with no protection for anyone."
The race is tight. A Quaest poll released on Monday (Sept 14) showed Flávio Bolsonaro with 42% of vote intentions against 40% for Lula in a possible runoff, a statistical tie. According to G1, the senator's campaign does not credit the court crisis for the gain; allies point to his performance among women as the main driver. The next step in the case sits on the court's calendar: Dino has up to 90 days to return the case, a deadline that ends in December, after the election, and the Sept 23 session that court president Edson Fachin scheduled to examine Mendonça's conduct has been jeopardized by the impasse.