Centrist parties that stayed out of Brazil's presidential race are already discussing a possible endorsement of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL party in a runoff against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party. The report came from the Painel column of the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo on Saturday (19). Party leaders heard by the column said there is now a trend toward backing the senator, especially after his rise in recent polls.

União Brasil and the PP, which run together in a formal federation, are expected to lead the line of endorsements, according to a party official heard by Folha. That reading is not new. In December 2025, political scientist Mário Sérgio Lepre of the PUC-PR university told Folha de Londrina that "União and PP should go in that direction" of supporting Flávio, while with Republicans, the PSD, the MDB and the PSDB the path "will be a bit more laborious".

Party bosses now see Flávio as the favorite

The scenario took shape over the month. Igor Gadelha's column at Metrópoles reported on September 10 that leaders of the PP, União Brasil and Republicans, core parties of the congressional bloc known as the centrão, had come to see Flávio as the favorite in the election. Until August, they regarded Lula as the clear frontrunner for reelection. Speaking on condition of anonymity, those leaders pointed to the crisis at the Supreme Federal Tribunal as the turning point. It began when leaked messages exposed the relationship between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro.

Bloc members believe Moraes's image is tied to Lula's and that the scandal splashes onto the president, Metrópoles reported. In their view, only a "new fact" against Flávio could change the race. In the Quaest poll released on September 7, the senator was numerically tied with Lula in a runoff scenario, at 41% each.

Neutral until October 4

The official position remains neutrality. The PP, União Brasil and Republicans defend staying out of the first-round race. The argument, according to Metrópoles, is that neutrality helps elect large benches in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, and will force any elected president to negotiate with those parties.

The first round is set for October 4. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the runoff takes place on October 25, and that is the scenario for which the centrão is now mapping its possible endorsement of the senator.