The southern Brazilian state of Paraná has recorded 9 tornadoes, more than 153,000 people affected and 6 deaths between June and September, the first four months of the current El Niño. The phenomenon was confirmed in early June by NOAA, the US agency that monitors it, and its latest report classifies the event as "very strong". The figures come from the state Civil Defense, which logged more than 450 incidents tied to gales, hail and heavy rain, according to a survey published by G1. The worst may still be ahead: October is historically the month with the most extreme weather events in the state.
The monthly series shows the escalation. Incidents went from 48 in June and 42 in July to 139 in August and 223 in September, when spring began in the Southern Hemisphere, a season that already tends to bring storms to southern Brazil. "The forecast has been confirmed, from the rise in temperature in the equatorial Pacific, which confirms this El Niño, to our own situation in the South of the country, where spring already brings this scenario. And it will be intensified because of El Niño," Colonel Ivan Ricardo Fernandes, executive coordinator of the Paraná Civil Defense, told G1.
What is happening in the Pacific explains the countdown in Paraná. In its September 10 discussion, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recorded sea surface temperature anomalies above +3.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and estimated a greater than 90% chance of a "very strong" El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. For the October to December quarter, the agency sees a 75% probability of a historic event, stronger than anything on record since 1950. In practice, the abnormal ocean warming shifts rainfall toward Brazil's South Region, where gales, hail, floods and landslides become more frequent.
Piraí do Sul, the epicenter
The strongest tornado of the period hit Piraí do Sul, a town of 24,000 people in the Campos Gerais region, on August 8. Rated F3 on the Fujita scale, with gusts estimated between 253 km/h and 332 km/h, it uprooted trees, destroyed rural homes and damaged barns and poultry sheds. At least 500 people were affected and one was injured, according to Civil Defense. Leandro Ferreira Lúcio lost both of the family's houses: the one he lived in and the one he was building. City hall donated construction materials, but he cannot afford the labor.
"To start building I even got a donation from a friend, but the bigger problem is the labor, because I have no means to continue, to pay. We are very worried, and there were other winds here recently that caused damage again... it is something you do not expect," he told G1.
Those later winds, above 100 km/h, hit 16 families in the municipality. Among them is the family of Andréia Ferreira, whose house had its structure compromised. Until she can rebuild, the family is living in a masonry counter that once housed a store, with help from friends and neighbors.
There is an institutional response under way. The Paraná state government says it has been preparing for the phenomenon since the first half of the year, and the state Civil Defense runs 24-hour monitoring with meteorologists from Simepar, the state weather institute, along with a public alert system. In Piraí do Sul, students and professors from the State University of Ponta Grossa (UEPG), who study tornadoes in the state, went to the school of the affected rural community, more than 30 kilometers from downtown, to teach children and teenagers how to recognize the phenomenon and protect themselves. With spring lasting until late December and forecasts pointing to intensifying storms, Civil Defense projects new events in the coming weeks.