The government of President Lula, who is running for reelection, is rated as bad or terrible by 42% of Brazilians, according to a Datafolha poll released on Thursday (Sept. 17). The positive rating, combining excellent and good, stands at 34%, while 23% call the government average. The survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo.
Datafolha, one of Brazil's main polling institutes, interviewed 2,002 people aged 16 and older on Sept. 15 and 16. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with the TSE, Brazil's electoral court, under number BR-04029/2026. In the previous survey, on Sept. 11, the negative rating was also 42% and the positive one 32%. According to Folha, the result, though within the margin of error, suggests the negative picture has stopped getting worse for Lula's campaign.
On job performance, 50% disapprove of the government and 48% approve of it. Last week the figures were 50% and 47%, according to the news site g1. The same poll shows a statistical tie between Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), his main rival in the October presidential race: 39% to 36% in first-round voting intentions and 46% to 44% in a runoff scenario. Rejection is also tied, at 47% each. Datafolha says the three-point gap is the narrowest since mid-May.
Campaign backdrop
Folha notes that Lula has spent the past two weeks in the negative spotlight of political news, because of the crisis at the Supreme Federal Court that has engulfed Justice Alexandre de Moraes. According to the newspaper, approval ratings help map the limits of the hunt for undecided and swing voters, who may decide the election.
The Bolsa Familia raise
On Thursday, as the survey was being completed, Lula announced a 15.04% increase in Bolsa Familia, the government's flagship cash-transfer program. The minimum monthly payment rises from 600 to 691 reais. Because the interviews were held on Sept. 15 and 16, the announcement does not show up in this poll. Flavio Bolsonaro called the move an "act of desperation" at a rally in Vitoria da Conquista, in Bahia state.
"Lula, in an act of desperation, has just issued a decree, knowing full well that it is illegal and prohibited during the elections," the senator said.
Senator Rogerio Marinho (PL-RN), political coordinator of Flavio Bolsonaro's campaign, said in a statement that "public money cannot be used as an electoral instrument, running over Congress and the law". Justice Andre Mendonca, of the TSE, on Thursday rejected a request to suspend the raise, without ruling on its merits. The first round is set for Oct. 4. The new Bolsa Familia floor starts being paid on Oct. 19, less than a week before a possible runoff on Oct. 25.