Brazil's institutional crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the country's top court, has not moved the presidential race. A Datafolha poll released on Saturday (12) shows that revelations about Justice Alexandre de Moraes did not change the preference of 85% of voters. In the case of accusations against Justice André Mendonça, the figure is 86%.
Datafolha interviewed 2,002 voters in 125 municipalities from Tuesday (8) to Thursday (10) of September. The margin of error is two percentage points. According to news site g1, the survey was commissioned by newspaper Folha de S.Paulo and broadcaster Globo, and registered with the electoral court as BR-01833/2026. Folha notes the fieldwork captures only part of the latest crisis revelations.
Few voters changed sides
Overall, 7% of respondents said the episodes left them unsure about whom to vote for, and another 4% said they actually switched candidates. Doubt is higher among voters of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party, at 8%, against 5% among supporters of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-wing PL party. In each group, 2% switched candidates. According to Folha, both frontrunners ticked up: Lula from 38% to 39%, and Flávio Bolsonaro, brother of former president Jair Bolsonaro, from 33% to 35%. The senator has tied his rival to Moraes on the campaign trail. The first round is on October 4.
Awareness of the crisis is high. Datafolha found that 66% of voters know of the episode involving Moraes; among them, 26% say they are well informed. The share rises to 75% among Flávio Bolsonaro voters, against 61% among those who declare a first-round vote for Lula. On the suspicions surrounding Mendonça, 45% say they know the accusations, according to news outlet Itatiaia.
Court session set for Tuesday
The crisis began on September 1, when Mendonça lifted the seal on a Federal Police report on the ties between Moraes and former banker Daniel Vorcaro of Banco Master. The document cites a 131 million reais contract between the banker and the law firm of Moraes's wife, plus messages in which Vorcaro weighed whether to leave the country to avoid arrest. There is no record of a reply from the justice.
Court President Edson Fachin has called an in-person plenary session for Tuesday (15) to discuss the Federal Police report and how to proceed. According to g1, Fachin rejected a joint trial of the two justices and scheduled for September 23 the session on Mendonça's conduct as rapporteur of the Master case.