Senator Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) holds a wide lead in the race for governor of Minas Gerais, Brazil's second largest electoral college. According to the third round of the DATATEMPO poll published by newspaper O TEMPO, the conservative lawmaker reaches 35.5% of voter intentions in the first round. The tally is more than triple the support recorded by each of his closest rivals competing for Palácio Tiradentes, the state government seat.

Former Belo Horizonte mayor Alexandre Kalil (PDT) and federal deputy Patrus Ananias (PT) are tied within the statistical margin for second place. Survey data indicates that both candidates are competing closely to secure a spot in a potential runoff. Vice Governor Mateus Simões (PSD) and Belo Horizonte city council president Gabriel Azevedo (MDB) round out the main contenders in the simulated field.

Clear lead across runoff scenarios

In head-to-head simulations for the second round, Cleitinho maintains a decisive advantage against every potential challenger. Corroborating numbers from pollster Real Time Big Data, Cleitinho defeats Kalil by 47% to 33% and bests Ananias by 48% to 36%. Against administration candidate Mateus Simões, the senator leads 49% to 27%.

Reacting to the release, Cleitinho celebrated the findings while pledging to keep grounded: "We celebrate with joy, but with our feet on the ground and great humility." Kalil, on the campaign trail, pointed to his executive record in Belo Horizonte. "I do not promise land on the moon, nor do I make spectacles on social media," the PDT candidate stated in remarks contrasting his campaign with internet-focused opponents.

Instituto DATATEMPO conducted 1,000 in-person household interviews across Minas Gerais between August 17 and August 20, 2026. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points with a 95% confidence level. The poll is officially registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under codes MG-03794/2026 and BR-08275/2026. The official race now heads into free television and radio airtime broadcasts ahead of the first round vote in October.