Brazil's gross public debt is projected to reach 89.6% of GDP in 2029, according to revised estimates by the National Treasury reported by Folha de S.Paulo. In plain terms: of every 100 reais of wealth the country produces in a year, nearly 90 will be spoken for by government debts. For taxpayers, that tends to show up as more of the budget eaten by interest payments and less left for health care and education.
The figures are in supplementary documents to the PLOA, Brazil's annual budget bill for 2027, which were sent to Congress on Friday (18). Under the new scenario, the debt ends 2026 at 83.7% of GDP and climbs to 89.7% in 2030. On a household scale, it is as if someone earning 5,000 reais a month, or 60,000 a year, owed 53,800 reais.
Understanding the number: the DBGG, or general government gross debt, adds up everything the federal government, states, cities and the pension system owe, without netting out assets. It is measured as a share of GDP, the value of all goods and services produced in the country in one year. The higher the ratio, the more risk creditors see and the more expensive it becomes for the government to borrow.
Why the debt is growing
According to Folha, the economic team blames two factors: the settlement of expenses left pending under former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), such as precatórios, court-ordered debts the federal government must pay, and the level of the Selic, the policy interest rate set by the Central Bank. The Selic directly affects the return on half of the debt bonds issued by the Treasury. Higher rates make rolling over the debt more expensive each year.
An inheritance for the next president
By the Treasury's math, the next presidential term will also see debt rising, only more slowly: 6 percentage points over four years, against the 12 points of Lula's term, which began with debt at 71.7% of GDP. There is one condition that would make it worse. If fiscal results land at the floor of the target, the loosest limit of the result range the government commits to deliver, debt passes 90% of GDP in 2029.
The pace of federal spending and the use of Treasury resources to expand subsidized credit had already drawn criticism from economists and financial market analysts. Now, according to the newspaper, the debt trajectory has become a central topic of the economic debate in the election campaign. As of Sunday (20), the Treasury numbers had been detailed only by Folha.