Iran has handed the United States, with Qatar mediating, a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within seven days and then resume negotiations over its nuclear program. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the proposal on Friday (Sept 25) on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. The conditions include ending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, easing sanctions on Iranian oil sales, releasing frozen assets estimated at at least US$12 billion (about 62 billion reais) and a ceasefire that also covers Lebanon.
Under the proposal, all hostilities in the Middle East would pause for seven days, the strait would reopen on the last of them, and nuclear talks would start immediately after. Araghchi said Tehran set out seven conditions and that the decision "now rests with the United States", according to the news site g1. Japan's Kyodo news agency first reported the plan on Tuesday, citing an Iranian official, but Iranian media denied it until the official confirmation. The design compresses into one week steps that had a 60-day deadline in the memorandum signed in June by Presidents Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian. That deal collapsed within weeks, over conflicting interpretations of its terms and renewed fighting. The war began in late February, when US and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and is close to seven months old.
"Iran has conveyed to the United States, through Qatar, a concrete seven-day plan. If the necessary conditions are met, the strait can be reopened and normal maritime transit restored within seven days," Araghchi said at UN headquarters.
What it means for Brazil
For Brazil, Hormuz arrives at the pump. Before the war, about a fifth of the oil and gas traded worldwide moved through the route, and the closure pushed the barrel above US$100 early in the conflict, the highest level since February 2022. Prices have eased but remain volatile: in July, the Brent benchmark hit US$86.47 after Trump said the US intends to control the passage and charge a 20% fee on cargo. Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company, dropped its import price parity policy in 2023 and passes price adjustments on gradually, which absorbs part of the shock: in March, the average pump price was 6.30 reais per liter, according to the ANP, Brazil's oil and fuels regulator, with Petrobras accounting for about 29% of the final price of gasoline and 46% in the case of diesel. "If oil stays at a high level for a long time, Petrobras will tend to raise prices to recover margins," Marcos Bassani, of Boa Brasil Capital, told g1. A deal that reopened the strait would ease the pressure on fuel, freight and inflation.
Who wants what
The knot sits in Washington. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump told his team in private conversations that a new bombing campaign is likely: he is expected to reject the plan and resume strikes after the November midterm elections, when Americans vote for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 in the Senate, both chambers now controlled by Republicans. At the UN, Trump threatened Iran with "annihilation" if no deal is reached, and Pezeshkian replied that his country will not "kneel". Araghchi said it "would be better" to close a deal before the vote. A US official quoted by O Globo said talks through mediators are positive and constructive, but that Washington does not want to rush; Trump himself says he is in no hurry, despite high prices. Gasoline weighs on the election: in July the US national average was US$3.84 a gallon, according to the auto club AAA, after a peak of US$4.56 in May. Gunter Rudzit, who teaches international relations at the ESPM business school in São Paulo, says Tehran is aiming at exactly that pressure point for American consumers, including Trump's own voter base.
China, by Araghchi's account, backs the proposal. Beijing is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, taking about 80% of exports, sustained by a 25-year strategic pact signed in 2021. With the blockade, daily shipments to China fell from 1.57 million barrels in February to just over 500,000 in August, according to the consultancy Kpler. During the state visit that ended on Friday, Trump warned President Xi Jinping that "any help" to Iran, military or intelligence-related, "would be totally unacceptable", according to the US ambassador to China, David Perdue. In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia is skeptical about the deal, according to the Associated Press, after Houthi rebels took Yemen's Red Sea coast and a Saudi pipeline was attacked. Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hossein Mohebi told the AFP news agency that ending the hostilities in Yemen is among Iran's demands.
The next step is a formal US reply. Araghchi presented the plan to the US envoy Steve Witkoff and to Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, on Tuesday, in a Qatar-mediated meeting he described as "productive"; Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismaeil Baghaei signaled that more mediated meetings could follow. In an interview with Fox News, Pezeshkian said that "when things can be resolved through dialogue, we should not be killing each other", and asked: "Why, just two weeks after signing an agreement, did they decide to blow it up?" The Iranian president added that his country is willing to negotiate "before or after" the American elections.